Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

After the Wrong Call by Overturning Max Security in Derby

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • After the Wrong Call by Overturning Max Security in Derby

    Guess we have to move on from that fixed race and see we can be on the right side of the cheating system which cost me around $1500 in last race ...

    Remember guys .......there was never a a DQ at the Derby in like 142 years , until the last one ....

    Unless you injure another horse you can't take the horse down no matter how the video looks , in the Derby .... Worthless sport at times .... Right up there with Boxing ...years ago ...fighters taking dives in fights

    That said ...

    Preakness

    Owendale ...Lexington Stakes Winner ...

    Lerxington Stakes Winners have finished in either 1st / 3rd or 4th ....10 out of the last 12 times they entered the Preakness ....

    So to me ....Owendale will be in the Top 4 Spots ....but mainly in the 3rd and 4th spot with most of my tickets ....fyi

    Here is the breakdown of Past Lexington Stakes Winners with their Preakness Finish Position

    (Since 1988)
    2017 Senior Investment 3rd
    2016 Collected 10th
    2015 Divining Rod 3rd
    2003 Scrimshaw 3rd
    2002 Proud Citizen 3rd
    1999 Charismatic 1st
    1998 Classic Cat 3rd
    1997 Touch Gold 4th
    1995 Star Standard 4th
    1992 My Luck Runs North 12th
    1991 Hansel 1st
    1988 Risen Star 1st
    Note: Overall 12 Entries : 3 Wins -0 Places -5 Shows -2 Fourth Place
    Spenda http://www.dtpicks.com/forums/core/i...lies/horse.gif

  • #2

    In 5 of the last 6 Preakness Stakes a horse has rallied from last to finish second or third.


    Since 2015

    7 Preakness runners have exited most-recent starts at Keeneland.

    5 of them have been in the superfecta at average odds of more than 14-1.

    Horses off race from Keenland

    Anothertwistafate

    Owendale

    Signalman
    Spenda http://www.dtpicks.com/forums/core/i...lies/horse.gif

    Comment


    • #3
      Only 2 Preakness winners in more than a half-century have started from post 1

      American Pharoah (2015)

      Tabasco Cat (1994).
      Spenda http://www.dtpicks.com/forums/core/i...lies/horse.gif

      Comment


      • #4
        What do you think of Bourbon War, Saturday, spenda?

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Spartan Dawg View Post
          What do you think of Bourbon War, Saturday, spenda?
          I have to say, that is one of the best names ever.

          Comment


          • #6
            This horse shouldn't be 12 to 1, philly. We got any left in our kitty for a flyer on him?

            Comment


            • #7
              Yeah we do Spartan Dawg but not much. Vinny had a rough week so far. Like $20 left. Might as well throw it on him!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Spartan Dawg View Post
                What do you think of Bourbon War, Saturday, spenda?
                I feel the horse has upside to him ... usually this race does not favor closers ...Preakness .... the race started with have no pace , then switched to a race full of speed with newcomers , which will help his chances ...

                He has a shot to win ....imo and will be in all tickets

                GL brotha
                Spenda http://www.dtpicks.com/forums/core/i...lies/horse.gif

                Comment


                • #9

                  2019 Preakness Stakes Form Cycle Analysis


                  A couple notes on each runner purely from a Pace Figures POV. Enjoy.

                  War of Will

                  His last effort in the Derby was a lifetime top (by four points) for both 4f and his final figure (77.2/78.7). The form cycle pattern DTOP (double top) is considered a top effort and often followed by regression. And while some horses, especially younger, can break through DTOP's, his morning-line odds of 4-1 don't offer enough value for the risk.



                  Bourbon War

                  His 16 point dirt spread (final figure minus 4f figure) is the highest in the field (75.3-59.6=15.9). This indicates a runner who starts off slower and comes running at the end. The issue with him is his most recent 4f figure is just 59 which points him towards the back of the field through the first half of the race. Yes, he will be coming at the end and passing tire horses, but not the top few who sat closer to the pace. A potential to use underneath in TRI and SFX.



                  Warrior's Charge

                  An improving runner, who at first glance, has two final figures that could put him in the mix (77.6 and 76.6). His last three races have positive dirt spreads, while his final figures are improving. His average lifetime 4f figure is 72.6, which is sixth best in the field. His PP's look like a front runner, but the figures say he's coming from the middle of the pack. Moving forward off two consecutive lifetime tops will be his challenge, and for that reason we expect regression more than improvement.



                  Improbable

                  The most consistent performer in the field whose run over 77.4 his last five starts. This also means we are still waiting for his breakout performance. And sans the lack of a Form Cycle Pattern, it's not expected he breaks out of his pattern of running 77's which is not quite enough to win the Preakness. A logical use for second and third but not in the top spot.



                  Owendale

                  His last race final figure of 75.2 was a career top and only the second time he's broken 73 in eight starts. No patterns indicated a big forward move would be surprising. Not fast enough to compete.



                  Market King

                  Aside his last race of a 57.4 final figure, this runner was on an improving pace figure line. Three NPT (New Pace Tops) in Q1 2019, followed by a near REV (Reversal Pattern) of 73.5/73.8 (3/16/19) put Market King in a position to fire his last race. That 75.5 4f figure indicates he did but the final figure was just so poor that it reeks of a horse that bled. We will give him another shot here and expect significant improvement. And while not expected to win, he will out run his longshot odds.



                  Always Mining

                  He's significantly improved since his DTOP race on 12/8/18, which was followed by three improving races cumulating with a 78.4 on 3/16/19. His last out effort was a 76 (SOFT Form Cycle Pattern), but consider that regression of 2.4 points. Based solely on that fact, where his final figures are getting worse, after a series of top improving efforts, will not be surprised to see this one regress.



                  Signalman

                  His lifetime top of 76 is slower than most of these and his last two final pace figures of 72.9 and 71.1 are slower than it's going to take to win.



                  Bodexpress

                  His Derby effort was a four point regression of his previous lifetime top of 77.1. And while he did get knocked around and taken back, his Derby Final Figure of 72.9 is not competitive in this race.



                  Everlast

                  Off a last race NPT (New Pace Top) form cycle pattern, improvement would not be surprising, though notice regressing efforts following the three previous NPT's. A bit more likely to regress than move forward though his morning-line odds have some appeal to use deep underneath.



                  Laughing Fox

                  And another runner whose last race effort was a lifetime top, this one by 2.4 points (as compared to the 75.1 on 2/18). All five races in 2019 show a final figure faster than a 4f figure which indicates a runner who will be coming later in the race. His 4f figures are faster than Bourbon War's which means he will be closer and closing. A potential use underneath but not more.



                  Anothertwisafate

                  And another runner whose last race effort showed regression, this time significantly. A 7.3 point regression to be exact off a lifetime DTOP of 82.1 on 3/24. Even with slight improvement, he'll run 75-76 which is not a fast enough final figure to hit the board.



                  Win Win Win

                  First notice the improving dirt spreads as this one stretches out. Second, he's never run slower than a 72 final figure (first start lifetime), only Improbable can say the same. Third, his lifetime average 4f figure is 75.1, tied with Bodexpress for the fastest in the race. These notes indicate an improving run with deceiving tactical speed. Notwithstanding his outside post, if Win Win Win breaks well and finds a spot towards the front, he will have the edge as the turn for home. The lukewarm top pick in a wide open Preakness Stakes.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Spartan Dawg View Post
                    2019 Preakness Stakes Form Cycle Analysis


                    A couple notes on each runner purely from a Pace Figures POV. Enjoy.

                    War of Will

                    His last effort in the Derby was a lifetime top (by four points) for both 4f and his final figure (77.2/78.7). The form cycle pattern DTOP (double top) is considered a top effort and often followed by regression. And while some horses, especially younger, can break through DTOP's, his morning-line odds of 4-1 don't offer enough value for the risk.



                    Bourbon War

                    His 16 point dirt spread (final figure minus 4f figure) is the highest in the field (75.3-59.6=15.9). This indicates a runner who starts off slower and comes running at the end. The issue with him is his most recent 4f figure is just 59 which points him towards the back of the field through the first half of the race. Yes, he will be coming at the end and passing tire horses, but not the top few who sat closer to the pace. A potential to use underneath in TRI and SFX.



                    Warrior's Charge

                    An improving runner, who at first glance, has two final figures that could put him in the mix (77.6 and 76.6). His last three races have positive dirt spreads, while his final figures are improving. His average lifetime 4f figure is 72.6, which is sixth best in the field. His PP's look like a front runner, but the figures say he's coming from the middle of the pack. Moving forward off two consecutive lifetime tops will be his challenge, and for that reason we expect regression more than improvement.



                    Improbable

                    The most consistent performer in the field whose run over 77.4 his last five starts. This also means we are still waiting for his breakout performance. And sans the lack of a Form Cycle Pattern, it's not expected he breaks out of his pattern of running 77's which is not quite enough to win the Preakness. A logical use for second and third but not in the top spot.



                    Owendale

                    His last race final figure of 75.2 was a career top and only the second time he's broken 73 in eight starts. No patterns indicated a big forward move would be surprising. Not fast enough to compete.



                    Market King

                    Aside his last race of a 57.4 final figure, this runner was on an improving pace figure line. Three NPT (New Pace Tops) in Q1 2019, followed by a near REV (Reversal Pattern) of 73.5/73.8 (3/16/19) put Market King in a position to fire his last race. That 75.5 4f figure indicates he did but the final figure was just so poor that it reeks of a horse that bled. We will give him another shot here and expect significant improvement. And while not expected to win, he will out run his longshot odds.



                    Always Mining

                    He's significantly improved since his DTOP race on 12/8/18, which was followed by three improving races cumulating with a 78.4 on 3/16/19. His last out effort was a 76 (SOFT Form Cycle Pattern), but consider that regression of 2.4 points. Based solely on that fact, where his final figures are getting worse, after a series of top improving efforts, will not be surprised to see this one regress.



                    Signalman

                    His lifetime top of 76 is slower than most of these and his last two final pace figures of 72.9 and 71.1 are slower than it's going to take to win.



                    Bodexpress

                    His Derby effort was a four point regression of his previous lifetime top of 77.1. And while he did get knocked around and taken back, his Derby Final Figure of 72.9 is not competitive in this race.



                    Everlast

                    Off a last race NPT (New Pace Top) form cycle pattern, improvement would not be surprising, though notice regressing efforts following the three previous NPT's. A bit more likely to regress than move forward though his morning-line odds have some appeal to use deep underneath.



                    Laughing Fox

                    And another runner whose last race effort was a lifetime top, this one by 2.4 points (as compared to the 75.1 on 2/18). All five races in 2019 show a final figure faster than a 4f figure which indicates a runner who will be coming later in the race. His 4f figures are faster than Bourbon War's which means he will be closer and closing. A potential use underneath but not more.



                    Anothertwisafate

                    And another runner whose last race effort showed regression, this time significantly. A 7.3 point regression to be exact off a lifetime DTOP of 82.1 on 3/24. Even with slight improvement, he'll run 75-76 which is not a fast enough final figure to hit the board.



                    Win Win Win

                    First notice the improving dirt spreads as this one stretches out. Second, he's never run slower than a 72 final figure (first start lifetime), only Improbable can say the same. Third, his lifetime average 4f figure is 75.1, tied with Bodexpress for the fastest in the race. These notes indicate an improving run with deceiving tactical speed. Notwithstanding his outside post, if Win Win Win breaks well and finds a spot towards the front, he will have the edge as the turn for home. The lukewarm top pick in a wide open Preakness Stakes.
                    Great stuff bro ...cool read
                    Spenda http://www.dtpicks.com/forums/core/i...lies/horse.gif

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Spartan Dawg View Post
                      This horse shouldn't be 12 to 1, philly. We got any left in our kitty for a flyer on him?
                      He's down to 5-1!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        My bets:

                        Bourbon War $5 ATB

                        Exacta Box: Bourbon War,; Win, Win, Win; Alwaysmining; Lauging Fox.


                        GL EVERYBODY!!!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Spartan Dawg View Post
                          My bets:

                          Bourbon War $5 ATB

                          Exacta Box: Bourbon War,; Win, Win, Win; Alwaysmining; Lauging Fox.


                          GL EVERYBODY!!!
                          Liking the X Box bro ...GL !!

                          Picked up $400 on Friday's card ... in a nice groove , that can change with today though ??? LOL !!!
                          Spenda http://www.dtpicks.com/forums/core/i...lies/horse.gif

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Spartan Dawg View Post
                            My bets:

                            Bourbon War $5 ATB

                            Exacta Box: Bourbon War,; Win, Win, Win; Alwaysmining; Lauging Fox.


                            GL EVERYBODY!!!
                            Alright sparty, our last $20 is going on this!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by philly View Post

                              Alright sparty, our last $20 is going on this!


                              Okay, everybody pour themselves a nice Maker's Mark, Jack, or whatever your bourbon of choice is, settle in, and watch this pony go!

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X